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Hit offers two types of prediction markets: Simple markets and Linked markets.

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Simple Markets

Simple markets are binary HIT/MISS markets with two possible outcomes. Example: “Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?”
  • HIT shares pay $1.00 if Bitcoin reaches $150,000
  • MISS shares pay $1.00 if Bitcoin doesn’t reach $150,000
  • HIT price + MISS price = $1.00

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Linked Markets

Linked markets (also called multi-outcome markets) connect multiple mutually exclusive binary markets where one and only one outcome can be true. Example: Presidential election with candidates A, B, and C
  • Each candidate has a separate HIT/MISS market
  • Only one candidate can win
  • The markets are linked because they’re mutually exclusive

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Placeholder Outcomes

Linked markets may include placeholder outcomes for potential candidates or options that haven’t been finalized yet. These placeholders can be updated with specific names once confirmed.

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The “Other” Outcome

Linked markets include an explicit “Other” outcome to ensure all possibilities are covered. This outcome is not meant to be actively traded and serves as a catch-all for any result not covered by the main options.

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Inverse Risk

In linked markets, holding MISS positions across multiple outcomes can be converted to HIT positions plus USDC because of mathematical equivalence. Example: Consider a position of 1 MISS A and 1 MISS B:
  • If A wins: position worth 1 USDC (MISS A pays nothing, MISS B pays $1.00)
  • If B wins: position worth 1 USDC (MISS A pays $1.00, MISS B pays nothing)
  • If C wins: position worth 2 USDC (both MISS tokens pay $1.00 each)
This position is equivalent to 1 USDC + 1 HIT C, as both positions have identical value in all scenarios. Hit’s infrastructure allows these MISS positions to be converted to their equivalent HIT positions plus USDC, enabling more efficient trading.